THINKERS JUNE 12 2012: DECLINE OF PRIVATE SIMS

[2012/06/12 15:32]  Extropia DaSilva: welcome to Thinkers!
[2012/06/12 15:32]  Zobeid Zuma: Trying to get my inventory under control. I got it trimmed below the 30K mark at least. :/
[2012/06/12 15:32]  ArtCrash Exonar: The trouble is, things are so much better quality now than even last year.
[2012/06/12 15:32]  Extropia DaSilva: today the topic is…
[2012/06/12 15:32]  Extropia DaSilva: New World Notes blogger Hamlet Au cited a report from Tyche Shepard that ‘suggests a grim future for private estates in SL’. Au urges Linden lab to make bold and radical changes to SL to grow its userbase and revenue. What steps might LL take?
[2012/06/12 15:32]  ArtCrash Exonar: oops better sit….
[2012/06/12 15:32]  Zobeid Zuma: Did Au specify what sort of bold and radical changes he wants to see?
[2012/06/12 15:33]  Extropia DaSilva: No. But he did once say that SL should run on tablets. By which I guess he means iPad and its ilk.
[2012/06/12 15:33]  Zobeid Zuma: Haha! Good luck with that. :p
[2012/06/12 15:34]  Extropia DaSilva: there was once a tech demo of blue mars running on iPad, but I do not know if anything commercial came of it.
[2012/06/12 15:34]  ArtCrash Exonar: I read Hamlet’s blog regularly and he is definitely a sky is falling kind of person.
[2012/06/12 15:34]  ArtCrash Exonar: Blue Mars didn’t get it at all. I toured over there a few times.
[2012/06/12 15:34]  Extropia DaSilva: So you do not think there is a terminal decline in renting of private sims, Art?
[2012/06/12 15:35]  ArtCrash Exonar: No, I don’t. Where is the evidence?
[2012/06/12 15:35]  Zobeid Zuma: The big problem that I see with SL is lack of competition. I mean, there’s OpenSim, but….
[2012/06/12 15:35]  ArtCrash Exonar: The decline in SL sims is exactly concurrent with the decline in the world economy.
[2012/06/12 15:35]  Zobeid Zuma: Oh, that’s an interesting point.
[2012/06/12 15:36]  ArtCrash Exonar: LIke I made much less than I did in 2007, ( I’m a freelance photographer)
[2012/06/12 15:36]  Extropia DaSilva: Well Tyche Shepard of ‘Grid Survey’ forecasts a loss of 10% of private sims by the end of this year.
[2012/06/12 15:36]  ArtCrash Exonar: When I first bought my sim in 2008, it was a much smaller part of my income. I think this is true for many.
[2012/06/12 15:37]  Zobeid Zuma: That would also explain what I saw on the mainland, in Bolinas.
[2012/06/12 15:37]  Zobeid Zuma: Lot’s of abandoned parcels, and parcels for sale.
[2012/06/12 15:37]  ArtCrash Exonar: I actually had to pay $1500 US just to buy the sim. Those days are gone…. haha
[2012/06/12 15:38]  ArtCrash Exonar: Lots of Mainland was driven up by land barons and speculators
[2012/06/12 15:38]  ArtCrash Exonar: Then it crashed
[2012/06/12 15:38]  Extropia DaSilva: curses, Anshe!
[2012/06/12 15:39]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Boo !
[2012/06/12 15:39]  Extropia DaSilva: Hey, Gwyn:)
[2012/06/12 15:39]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Hiya all 🙂
[2012/06/12 15:39]  ArtCrash Exonar: If you will remember when the real drop in Mainland occurred it was AFTER September 2008. When the real economy crashed.
[2012/06/12 15:40]  Extropia DaSilva: We are talking about the decline in private sims, and what LL can do to rake in money if the renting of land model is no longer viable.
[2012/06/12 15:41]  Zobeid Zuma: Maybe this is a good thing. LL goes out of business, and is replaced by a hodgepodge of OpenSim hosting services who soon have linked their worlds together into a WWW-like hyperworld! Everybody wins!
[2012/06/12 15:41]  ArtCrash Exonar: Everyone says the renting land model is no longer viable, but I don’t see what evidence for ‘no longer viable’ comes from?
[2012/06/12 15:41]  Extropia DaSilva: No I said IF it is no longer viable.
[2012/06/12 15:41]  ArtCrash Exonar: Declining slightly is different from ‘no longer viable’.
[2012/06/12 15:41]  ArtCrash Exonar: Hamlet says no longer viable…. heh
[2012/06/12 15:42]  Zobeid Zuma: The virtual world situation today is sort of like if the WWW was invented but couldn’t get off the ground because, you know, everybody and everything is on America Online anyhow. :/
[2012/06/12 15:42]  ArtCrash Exonar: If you go out to the shopping and club world in SL, you will find SL hopping with action and energy.
[2012/06/12 15:42]  Zobeid Zuma: or CompuSpend…. I mean, CompuServe!
[2012/06/12 15:44]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Tough, tough questions.
[2012/06/12 15:44]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: What *seems* to be LL’s answer is…
[2012/06/12 15:44]  Extropia DaSilva: Well look at this group. Apart from Birric it is only us diehards who could be bothered to show up and voice an opinion about the state of SL and how to improve it. This is either apathy towards my group or Sl itself.
[2012/06/12 15:44]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: … let’s diversify our business
[2012/06/12 15:44]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Sell other products
[2012/06/12 15:45]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: And with that, we still remain lucrative
[2012/06/12 15:45]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: … and then we can think of either reducing tier,
[2012/06/12 15:45]  Extropia DaSilva: Heya TR:)
[2012/06/12 15:45]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: or selling sims with more features
[2012/06/12 15:45]  Extropia DaSilva: and Vorren too.
[2012/06/12 15:45]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: OR
[2012/06/12 15:45]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: (this is the bad part)
[2012/06/12 15:45]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: They MIGHT change the prim-based economy into a Land Impact-based economy,
[2012/06/12 15:45]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: and since that means rewriting the rules,
[2012/06/12 15:46]  Extropia DaSilva: how would that work, Gwyn?
[2012/06/12 15:46]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: they hope that people will be so hopelessly confused that they will still pay tier 🙂
[2012/06/12 15:46]  Extropia DaSilva: Anyone think Vorren looks a litle bit like a Cadbury’s Smash robot?
[2012/06/12 15:46]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Extie: how it *works* is simple to understand; how LL expects to make more money out of it is totally unclear for me
[2012/06/12 15:46]  ArtCrash Exonar: Another myth out there is that people are in SL because they need to fill an empty hole in their lives. Let me make an analogy. Say you only discover chocolate when you are 15 or something. Then you eat it regularly. Are you filling the void in your life that you had previously, and are you therefore somehow suspect? NO! You discovered chocolate and you LIKE IT! End of story.
[2012/06/12 15:46]  Zobeid Zuma: He looks like the robot from that game… Mechanarium?
[2012/06/12 15:47]  Extropia DaSilva: tell me how it works. I want to know.
[2012/06/12 15:47]  TR Amat: Hi
[2012/06/12 15:47]  Vorren Voltaire: I though it was more like the android logo. hello 🙂
[2012/06/12 15:47]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Art: SO TRUE.
[2012/06/12 15:48]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Extie: the prim-based economy is tied to an abstract assumption about “prims” representing a certain amount of CPU., memory and bandwidth
[2012/06/12 15:48]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: As we know, this is not true… a tortured prim consumes far more resources than a 7-face cube.
[2012/06/12 15:49]  Zobeid Zuma: Zobeid Zuma rezzes a cube and counts the faces….
[2012/06/12 15:49]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Land Impact, at least theoretically, places a new correlation between “objects” and CPU, memory, and bandwidth consumption
[2012/06/12 15:49]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: (6 outside, one inside, Zo 😉 )
[2012/06/12 15:49]  ArtCrash Exonar: The myth of prim resources being equal is a good ‘land impact’ is a mistake by LL in my opinion. People see their resources being attacked. Very bad PR.one though. Replacing it with
[2012/06/12 15:50]  Extropia DaSilva: (some people eat chocolate as a comfort food, though…)
[2012/06/12 15:50]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Now this new correlation means that the way we figure out how much land for all our content will change
[2012/06/12 15:50]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Aye, Art, I’m not saying that it’s a “better” model
[2012/06/12 15:50]  ArtCrash Exonar: Average system resources is a better concept than specific system resources.
[2012/06/12 15:50]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Just that it’s a *different* one, and, by changing the rules, LL MIGHT expect that they’ll get more people to buy land… I don’t know
[2012/06/12 15:50]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Gwyneth Llewelyn *shrugs*
[2012/06/12 15:51]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: A more reasonable modelo would be # of polygons, anyway, like Blue Mars did…
[2012/06/12 15:51]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Blue Mars had the concept of an “area”. It didn’t matter how “big” it was. What counted was that all the meshes together with the textures had to fit into 500 MBytes.
[2012/06/12 15:51]  ArtCrash Exonar: Ha ha, don’t point to anything Blue Mars did as a success!
[2012/06/12 15:51]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Heh 🙂 Right, Art!
[2012/06/12 15:52]  Extropia DaSilva: did? Is it no longer in operation, then?
[2012/06/12 15:52]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: I was just giving an example of an alternate way of establishing an economy based on content
[2012/06/12 15:52]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Ha Extie
[2012/06/12 15:52]  ArtCrash Exonar: Blue Mars doesn’t exist as a desktop app only a phone app.
[2012/06/12 15:52]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: I’d be pressed to believe that there is any other social virtual world with user-generated content stiull around, except for SL, OpenSim, and, granted, IMVU (even though IMVU is room-based)
[2012/06/12 15:52]  Extropia DaSilva: How can it work on a phone and SL cannot?
[2012/06/12 15:53]  ArtCrash Exonar: It is a shell of its former self, that is how.
[2012/06/12 15:53]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: SL *can* work on a phone. It’s just that nobody spent enough time developing an application for it.
[2012/06/12 15:53]  Extropia DaSilva: It must be. LAst time I looked Blue Mars was glorious. Visually speaking.
[2012/06/12 15:53]  Zobeid Zuma: I think they actually render the graphics on their own hardware and then stream it as video to the phone?
[2012/06/12 15:54]  ArtCrash Exonar: about 2 years ago I ‘tested’ a web based version of SL which was very excellent. Trouble is, it was all cloud streamed. And LL can’t afford to do that.
[2012/06/12 15:54]  TR Amat: I used Blue Mars via a desktop, but not for quite a long time – Hard to find anyone when I visited.
[2012/06/12 15:54]  Extropia DaSilva: Oh you mean like that OnLive streaming videogame service?
[2012/06/12 15:54]  Zobeid Zuma: Something like that, yeah.
[2012/06/12 15:54]  Zobeid Zuma: They have something called Blue Mars Lite they are advertising now.
[2012/06/12 15:54]  Extropia DaSilva: BTW, Zo asked a question at the start: What ‘bold steps’ did Hamlet Au have in mind. Does anyone know?
[2012/06/12 15:55]  ArtCrash Exonar: Hamlet thinks SL should be a game of some sort.
[2012/06/12 15:55]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Gwyneth Llewelyn tries to turn on her mind-.reading powers but fails utterly
[2012/06/12 15:55]  Extropia DaSilva: He is often going on about LL making bold and radical steps to turn around the fortunes of the company. But what, exactly?
[2012/06/12 15:55]  Zobeid Zuma: I think I remember actually trying Blue Mars Lite once, and I couldn’t make heads or tails of it. I was totally lost.
[2012/06/12 15:55]  Vorren Voltaire: Is BM triving or floundering? I’ve been out of the loop for about a year.
[2012/06/12 15:55]  TR Amat: I thought a Nokia phone was the only one that ran native SL…
[2012/06/12 15:56]  Extropia DaSilva: Sounds like every newcomer to Sl to me, Zo!
[2012/06/12 15:56]  ArtCrash Exonar: Blue Mars is defunct for all intents and purposes.
[2012/06/12 15:56]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Indeed.
[2012/06/12 15:56]  Vorren Voltaire: Anything else out there besides OpenSim spawn?
[2012/06/12 15:56]  TR Amat: Blue Mars lackded an effective Map and Mini Ma when used t.
[2012/06/12 15:56]  Extropia DaSilva: Well then SL must be doing something right. There is gone..Blue Mars is gone..but we are still here.
[2012/06/12 15:56]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: I don’t see any *theoretical* problem in developing a phone app for SL
[2012/06/12 15:57]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Extie: my argument exactly!
[2012/06/12 15:57]  Zobeid Zuma: You don’t see a performance problem there, Gwyn?
[2012/06/12 15:57]  ArtCrash Exonar: The one problem that stops the Open Sim interactive teleporting model from taking off is how to protect intellectual property. It is a difficult problem.
[2012/06/12 15:57]  TR Amat: More momentu?
[2012/06/12 15:57]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: And you have forgotten to mention all the other VWs who have been long goine hehe
[2012/06/12 15:57]  Extropia DaSilva: But Zo says this monopoly is not healthy.
[2012/06/12 15:57]  Zobeid Zuma: Because SL runs just about adequately on my dual-Xeon Mac Pro. I’m just saying. :/
[2012/06/12 15:57]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: That I agree with.
[2012/06/12 15:57]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Zo: I’m green with envy!
[2012/06/12 15:58]  Zobeid Zuma: Still bogs down when I go to Luskwood though.
[2012/06/12 15:58]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Or to Pennyroyal… oops
[2012/06/12 15:58]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: lol
[2012/06/12 15:58]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Monpolies are never healthy, because customers have no choice but to pay whatever is required of them…. or leave.
[2012/06/12 15:58]  ArtCrash Exonar: People can say SL is failing, but then you look at $500 million US dollars in commerce last year and ask: Is it really failing?
[2012/06/12 15:58]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Luckily for LL, people are NOT leaving in masses.
[2012/06/12 15:59]  Extropia DaSilva: where did you get that number from, Art?
[2012/06/12 15:59]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Last year you still got statistics 🙂
[2012/06/12 15:59]  ArtCrash Exonar: Yes, true… haha
[2012/06/12 15:59]  Zobeid Zuma: If there were bunches of companies in play, then different ones would try the various pricing strategies and we’d soon find out which ones worked best.
[2012/06/12 16:00]  Zobeid Zuma: The reason people aren’t leaving is because there are too many obstacles.
[2012/06/12 16:00]  Extropia DaSilva: Maybe one day everything will fall into place with opensim and we all emigrate?
[2012/06/12 16:00]  ArtCrash Exonar: There are various Open Sim Companies in play now Zob, BUT they all found they need to act as monopolies for the time being.
[2012/06/12 16:00]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Well, what LL needs is a different source of income beyond tier. They have betted on the SL Marketplace, but IMHO taht will only aggravate the problem — sure, they get a commission on sales, but people leave their shops because it’s less expensive to place products on a website. Less shops, less tier…
[2012/06/12 16:00]  TR Amat: So, in OpenSim the only thing you can maintain IP onis sripts?
[2012/06/12 16:01]  Zobeid Zuma: You can go to OpenSim, but you have to register a new account, and you can’t take your stuff with you, and you can’t IM back and forth with your friends who are still in SL, etc., etc.
[2012/06/12 16:01]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Art, you have just stated the main reason why OpenSim is NOT a success, although, in terms of landmass, the publicly listed OpenSim grids have as many regions as SL — but less than 1/20th of the users.
[2012/06/12 16:01]  TR Amat: on is scripts
[2012/06/12 16:01]  Zobeid Zuma: Why do you say that, TR?
[2012/06/12 16:01]  Zobeid Zuma: As far as I know, IP rights and protection flags work the same in OpenSim as they do here.
[2012/06/12 16:02]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Art, you suggested once that LL placed a sales tax on all L$ transactions on the grid, right? I think it was you…
[2012/06/12 16:02]  TR Amat: Anything but scripts can be stolen?
[2012/06/12 16:02]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Zo: aye, the difference nowadays is just two-fold: 1) Bugs 🙂 and 2) Extra permissions for HyperGrid teleports
[2012/06/12 16:02]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: How so, “stolen”? OpenSim has permissions…
[2012/06/12 16:02]  Zobeid Zuma: I haven’t heard about that, TR.
[2012/06/12 16:03]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: It’s as hard to ‘steal’ on OpenSim as on SL 🙂
[2012/06/12 16:03]  ArtCrash Exonar: As I stated earlier. The idea of ‘surfing’ between Open Sims and SL has a HUGE stumbling block. And that is no standard for protecting intellectual property. There MUST be an international standard that is adopted for this and each Open Sim needs to sign on to it along with the protection methods. This might take a while to happen if it EVER does….
[2012/06/12 16:03]  Zobeid Zuma: Well, my idea was just to do away with DRM. But it seems to be an experiment that nobody is willing to try even in the OpenSim world.
[2012/06/12 16:03]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Art: indeed. That’s the biggest obstacle BUT…. there is ONE solution, which LL never wanted to consider: make *LL* the “international standard agency”,.
[2012/06/12 16:03]  Zobeid Zuma: Maybe I’ll finally get off my behind and try it myself someday.
[2012/06/12 16:04]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: There are a lot of OpenSim grids where all content is free to copy (by design, not by bug) ㋡ Then again, the same happens in some regions in SL.
[2012/06/12 16:04]  Zobeid Zuma: Gwyn, can you point me towards one of those grids? I’d like to give that a look.
[2012/06/12 16:05]  ArtCrash Exonar: Gwyn, that might be the radical concept that LL needs to adopt. However, I think LL doesn’t want land price competition, so they have backed away from the Open Sim surfing idea, which they initially were working on with full participation…..
[2012/06/12 16:05]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: The problem is that if LL allows HyperGrid teleporting from SL to OpenSim grids and vice-versa, that will not solve the tier problem *for LL* — even though it meant a 200% growth in the landmass with a single policy change 🙂
[2012/06/12 16:05]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Zo: no, because I forgot which one it was 🙂 I was just randomly teleporting across them using HyperGates…
[2012/06/12 16:06]  Zobeid Zuma: I guess I’ll have to go exploring again!
[2012/06/12 16:06]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: You have to!
[2012/06/12 16:06]  ArtCrash Exonar: The biggest of the Open Sims, do not subscribe to hypergrid.
[2012/06/12 16:06]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: I don’t think that LL wants any land tier competition either. They could compensate with “peering agreements” with other grids, but I don’t think it would work
[2012/06/12 16:07]  ArtCrash Exonar: They adopted the LL model for the same reasons LL is holding on to it.
[2012/06/12 16:07]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Exactly 🙂
[2012/06/12 16:07]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Which is soooooooo silly
[2012/06/12 16:07]  TR Amat: Got a good place to start?
[2012/06/12 16:07]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: OS grid 🙂
[2012/06/12 16:07]  ArtCrash Exonar: InWorldz
[2012/06/12 16:08]  Extropia DaSilva: (looks up from IM) my sis loves me:))…now where were we…ah OS…
[2012/06/12 16:08]  Vorren Voltaire: Is anyone going to these places besides SL refugees?
[2012/06/12 16:08]  ArtCrash Exonar: What is kind of funny is that some of the biggest Open Sim grids are much more strict regarding sim ratings etc….
[2012/06/12 16:08]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Oh yes haha
[2012/06/12 16:09]  ArtCrash Exonar: I participate in InWorldz art projects occasionally…..
[2012/06/12 16:09]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Vorren: depends what you mean by that. There are dozens of thousands of regular users on the many OpenSim grids.
[2012/06/12 16:09]  ArtCrash Exonar: And it really is easy to make stuff in other grids and import it into SL by the way. As long as you own all of the pieces
[2012/06/12 16:10]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: But if the question is: “is OpenSim attracting users that have NEVER been to SL before?” this is harder to answer. I’m sure it happens on some educational projects, though.
[2012/06/12 16:10]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: But I’d say that would be marginal…
[2012/06/12 16:10]  TR Amat: OK, I’ve got a InWorldz login… SpotOn£D,OpenlifeGrid…
[2012/06/12 16:10]  Vorren Voltaire: I mean are they getting their own population, or are they just taking from Second Life? My limited experiance has been that most folks I met in OS grids were former SL residents.
[2012/06/12 16:11]  ArtCrash Exonar: Surprisingly I have met many in InWorldz that know nothing of SL. I didn’t expect that.
[2012/06/12 16:11]  Extropia DaSilva: Would I be right in saying opensims will always be like Sl was like years ago? I mean, can they ever be more advanced than SL?
[2012/06/12 16:11]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Really, Art?? I wouldn’t have expected it either!
[2012/06/12 16:11]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Now that’s truly speculating, Extie 🙂
[2012/06/12 16:11]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Also, “ever” is a long time… hehe
[2012/06/12 16:11]  ArtCrash Exonar: I think the answer to that Extie is a big no. And that is because they don’t have the employees to compete on technology.
[2012/06/12 16:12]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: There will be a few unsurpassable obstacles
[2012/06/12 16:12]  Extropia DaSilva: That is kind of what I was thinking, Art.
[2012/06/12 16:12]  ArtCrash Exonar: A lot of the Open Sim grids don’t have physics for example.
[2012/06/12 16:12]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Take Havok, for example. Most people cannot afford Havok licenses. OpenSim doesn’t interface with Havok, so you would need to do the coding on your own. And ODE is good, but not as good as Havok.
[2012/06/12 16:13]  ArtCrash Exonar: haha jinx
[2012/06/12 16:13]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Art: actually, there are more core developers on OpenSim (19 on my last count) than on SL (12 on my last count) 🙂
[2012/06/12 16:13]  TR Amat: Some schools are using OpenSim to build their own grids behind school firewalls…
[2012/06/12 16:13]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: The difference is that the OpenSim core developers don’t work full-time on OpenSim
[2012/06/12 16:13]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: TR: it’s not just “some” — it’s hundreds!
[2012/06/12 16:13]  ArtCrash Exonar: Have you tried using a mesh browser for any opensim grids?
[2012/06/12 16:14]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: I did hehe lol
[2012/06/12 16:14]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: It’s fun to crash OpenSim on underpowered hardware 🙂
[2012/06/12 16:14]  ArtCrash Exonar: Open Sim experience is just like SL circa 2008 or 9 because they are using brower 1.23 and it’s clones.
[2012/06/12 16:15]  Extropia DaSilva: will opensim every join up with Sl to make some almighty metaverse? Do you think one day I will TP to a sim and not know or care if it is an Sl or an OS sim?
[2012/06/12 16:15]  TR Amat: I hear talk on hooking SCRATCH up to OpenSim, but, likely just talk.
[2012/06/12 16:15]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: You *can* use a modern viewer with modern versions of OpenSim, Art….
[2012/06/12 16:15]  Zobeid Zuma: I still hold out hope that both SL and OpenSim will be swept away by something new and better.
[2012/06/12 16:15]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Most commercial OpenSim grid operators still use outdated versions of OpenSim, however
[2012/06/12 16:15]  ArtCrash Exonar: I usually use Imprudence to so Open Sim grids.
[2012/06/12 16:15]  ArtCrash Exonar: see
[2012/06/12 16:16]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Zo: no. That won’t happen. Why should anyone compete in a market where all players failed except one — Linden Lab? It’s pointless!
[2012/06/12 16:16]  Extropia DaSilva: Me too, Zo. I hope Sl is not the best online world there can ever be.
[2012/06/12 16:16]  Extropia DaSilva: At least in its current state.
[2012/06/12 16:16]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Commercially speaking, there is no alternative and there will not be any new alternative (unless LL does it).
[2012/06/12 16:16]  Zobeid Zuma: All players? How many other players were there?
[2012/06/12 16:16]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Thousands — take a look at K-Zero’s statistics
[2012/06/12 16:17]  Vorren Voltaire: or google earth adds avatars, avatar accessories and a micropayment system
[2012/06/12 16:17]  Zobeid Zuma: Buh?
[2012/06/12 16:17]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: And more coming up every day 🙂
[2012/06/12 16:17]  Zobeid Zuma: We must be talking a different language….
[2012/06/12 16:17]  Extropia DaSilva: Google did try an online world. It failed. What was it called again? Lively?
[2012/06/12 16:17]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Every kid with some coding skills gets venture capital these days…
[2012/06/12 16:17]  TR Amat: Are the Cortex GPUs in recent phones adequate for SL?
[2012/06/12 16:17]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Launching a new virtual world is *simple*. The technology has been around for decades 😛
[2012/06/12 16:18]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Keeping it commercially afloat is another story
[2012/06/12 16:18]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Even Google failed, Vorren. Remember Lively?
[2012/06/12 16:18]  ArtCrash Exonar: I think for people like me ( who never had enough building blocks in childhood) SL is great. You can make stuff that only your imagination can limit. But not everyone is into that kind of thing. Secondarily, SL is Barbie for adults. But Barbie on steroids cubed. Thirdly SL is a social scene with great music.
[2012/06/12 16:18]  Zobeid Zuma: SL is a platform. To say it’ll never be replaced is like somebody in 1978 saying that CP/M will never be replaced. Everything runs on CP/M!
[2012/06/12 16:18]  Extropia DaSilva: So is it just that folks turn up and go ‘meh, nowhere near the content of SL’?
[2012/06/12 16:19]  Extropia DaSilva: How can any new online world compete with A) the content that Sl’s builders have put together and B) the network of friends that I have acquired?
[2012/06/12 16:19]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: SL is a way of life. To say it’ll be replaced is saying that Unix or the Internet are “obsolete” after 43 years 🙂 It’s not as if we haven’t come up with better things.
[2012/06/12 16:20]  Vorren Voltaire: Google was barking up the wrong tree with Lively. They could still revisit the idea. Just saying, its possible for one of the big players in tech to take on VR and wipe out SL. Probably not within the decade though.
[2012/06/12 16:20]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Extropia: according to the Laws of Gwyn, the answer to A and B is NEVER.
[2012/06/12 16:20]  Zobeid Zuma: Lively wasn’t even really a virtual world, was it? I thought it was more like a chat room with graphics.
[2012/06/12 16:20]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Vorren: why should they? There is no money in it, long-term.
[2012/06/12 16:20]  ArtCrash Exonar: Most of what I miss in other Grids is people. There is low concurrency and therefore not much social activity. That said. The pace is slower and when you talk to someone it is usually one on one and not multiple IMs at the same time.
[2012/06/12 16:20]  Extropia DaSilva: If all the people I can name without having to look at my friend list were to leave en-mass for some new online world, I would quit Sl and go be where my friends are.
[2012/06/12 16:21]  Extropia DaSilva: My friends matter to me more than Sl itself does.
[2012/06/12 16:21]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Well yes. If there were proof of a Heaven, everybody would love to move there 🙂
[2012/06/12 16:22]  ArtCrash Exonar: Nice point Extie, AND if SL was to someday fold up, I think the Open Sim Grids would explode with the refugees.
[2012/06/12 16:22]  Zobeid Zuma: That was my scenario. 😀
[2012/06/12 16:22]  Vorren Voltaire: I hear heaven is overpriced and way too commercial. All the hip kids are buying up land in purgatory
[2012/06/12 16:22]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Now, on a parochial scale, I believe that your situation might very well happen. Imagine, for the sake of an argument, that you just have a dozen friends, and all of them moved to Inworldz, vowing never to return to SL…
[2012/06/12 16:22]  Zobeid Zuma: You mean Detroit, Vorren?
[2012/06/12 16:22]  TR Amat: “Extropia is going to OpenSim grid X – we all must go!” 🙂
[2012/06/12 16:22]  Vorren Voltaire: heh
[2012/06/12 16:22]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: hehe
[2012/06/12 16:23]  TR Amat: I heard the ISM was moving to OpenGrid – that’d make me go look.
[2012/06/12 16:23]  Extropia DaSilva: I probably DO have a dozen friends. By which I mean true friends. Most of the people on my friends list are folks I met once, friended and never contacted again.
[2012/06/12 16:23]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: My argument goes even further…. if SL, with all its appeal, cannot hold on to current users (even though the decline is far slower than Hamlet thinks it is), why should much smaller operators survive long-term, since they’re basically copying LL’s model, but with much worse technology and far less human resources?
[2012/06/12 16:24]  ArtCrash Exonar: BTW, to all the people who say LL tier is outrageously high. Let me point out that the Open Sim sims that started out at $20 a month, moved up to $50 and now $95. It costs money to do this type of thing. They are learning that LL isn’t as off base as they originally thought.
[2012/06/12 16:24]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: TR: interestingly enough, I’ve heard from scattered projects that are *returning*, mostly because the OpenSim grids they’re on are failing, have not adequate resources or population, or aren’t viable long-term… even though they return with much smaller projects.
[2012/06/12 16:25]  Vorren Voltaire: Isn’t that part of the problem though? I’d love to see LL stop adding new bells and whistles and focus on ways to make it more affordable to run, then pass the savings on to us
[2012/06/12 16:26]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Art: even today, I asked ReactionGrid for a quote: they now refuse to sell individual sims, but offer you a virtual server instead for US$650 + $175 monthly. You COULD host more than a region on it, but since it’s a *virtual* server, I wouldn’t do that.
[2012/06/12 16:26]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Vorren: they ARE doing things to lower their operation costs. The question is if they will pass the savings to us 🙂
[2012/06/12 16:27]  ArtCrash Exonar: I think that a radical change in thinking, where I think ALL commerce is taxed at say 20 percent, and land and prim resources are reduced to 20 percent of what they are now would work well.
[2012/06/12 16:27]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: The issue with the big OpenSim grid operators is that they found out that as soon as they’re hosting hundreds or sims, they need far more resources than they expected, so their original proces for regions were hopelessly unrealistic.
[2012/06/12 16:27]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Art: ah yes. I thought it was you that suggested that
[2012/06/12 16:27]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Well, 20% taxes sounds too European to me 🙂
[2012/06/12 16:27]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: I’d start with 5% ㋡
[2012/06/12 16:28]  Extropia DaSilva: maybe they should tax avatars?
[2012/06/12 16:28]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: 5% of half a billion dollars is a lot of money.
[2012/06/12 16:28]  Extropia DaSilva: you know do not charge me a penny for being here? In fact they pay me!
[2012/06/12 16:29]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Extie: Freakonomics would show that to be an unwise move. It would mean people buying less things for their avatars, thus forcing content creators to shut down, and stop paying tier for their shops. It’s not a good idea 🙂
[2012/06/12 16:29]  ArtCrash Exonar: I’m thinking of the actual numbers when I say that Gwyn. $500 million taxed at 20 percent would give LL the $100 million they need to run the place using current sales.
[2012/06/12 16:29]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Oh!
[2012/06/12 16:29]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Good thinking 🙂
[2012/06/12 16:29]  Extropia DaSilva: I am glad. I would hate to actually have to pay to be here.
[2012/06/12 16:29]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: They could even give land for FREE that way, Art!
[2012/06/12 16:29]  TR Amat: I firs joined SL late 2006 – just after they allowed free registration, I think.
[2012/06/12 16:29]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Hmm
[2012/06/12 16:29]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Gwyneth Llewelyn pays US$72 per annum to be here
[2012/06/12 16:29]  Extropia DaSilva: OO one minute left folks!
[2012/06/12 16:29]  Vorren Voltaire: I liked being paid to be here. Bring back dwell and ratings.
[2012/06/12 16:30]  Vorren Voltaire: (kidding)
[2012/06/12 16:30]  Extropia DaSilva: I used to feel dead chuffed when I got a positive rating off of somebody.
[2012/06/12 16:30]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Well, for the last minute, I would like to join forces with Art and propose a sales tax that would make land free
[2012/06/12 16:31]  ArtCrash Exonar: A small parcel of free land for everyone. But large land at much less. Say the cost of the bandwidth it takes to run it plus depreciate the 1/16 of a server it takes to run a sim.
[2012/06/12 16:31]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Well, perhaps with a compromise, e.g. you would have to have some minimum sales…
[2012/06/12 16:31]  Zobeid Zuma: Not sure how that would be enforced, and whether people would find ways to worm around it.
[2012/06/12 16:31]  Extropia DaSilva: Did you know the number ‘google’ was invented as a convenient shortand to avoid typing out all the zeros in Gwyn’s rating? 1000…….
[2012/06/12 16:31]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Gwyneth Llewelyn gets free 512 m2 for paying LL every year US$72
[2012/06/12 16:31]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Very funny, Extie 🙂 He he.
[2012/06/12 16:32]  TR Amat: Don’t tax you, don’t tax me, tax that tree? 🙂
[2012/06/12 16:32]  Extropia DaSilva: You were soooo popular:)) and so you should be!
[2012/06/12 16:32]  Extropia DaSilva: OK my time is up!
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One Response to THINKERS JUNE 12 2012: DECLINE OF PRIVATE SIMS

  1. Pingback: A Collection of Reflections | Virtual Vision 2020

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