THINKERS 27th JULY 2010: HARD TAKEOFF.

[2010/07/27 15:33]  Extropia DaSilva: Today we are discussion what singularitarians call the ‘hard takeoff’.
[2010/07/27 15:33]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: yay, 20 million registered users today!
[2010/07/27 15:33]  Shorahmin Femto: is Big M still on the list?
[2010/07/27 15:33]  Extropia DaSilva: So I thought I would begin with this passage from Vernor Vinge’s essay in the IEEE Spectrum…
[2010/07/27 15:33]  Extropia DaSilva: One moment the world is like [today], perhaps more heavily networked…And then something happens….probably the result of intentional research, perhaps a group exploring the parameter space of their theory. One of their experiments finally gets things right. The results transform the world- in a matter of hours.
[2010/07/27 15:34]  Shorahmin Femto: it’s the Terminator supposition
[2010/07/27 15:34]  Extropia DaSilva: So..
[2010/07/27 15:34]  Khannea Suntzu: I strongly resent the simplicity and linear naievete of the terminator argument.
[2010/07/27 15:34]  Extropia DaSilva: We should not be thinking about a hard takeoff happening by accident..
[2010/07/27 15:34]  Luisa Bourgoin: so no direction of “transformation” defined?
[2010/07/27 15:35]  Lem Skall: it won’t happen like that unless the new discovery is already made by machines
[2010/07/27 15:35]  Shorahmin Femto: The movie The Terminator assumed such a point
[2010/07/27 15:35]  Luisa Bourgoin: could end into a hard knockoff from the wall, like Terminator movie did?
[2010/07/27 15:35]  Extropia DaSilva: But rather, a lot if intentional research going on, and finally somebody or some group makes a key breakthroyugh, and a once catatonic system suddenly awakens.
[2010/07/27 15:35]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: /me is now curious about that movie; the only “Terminator” I know is with Arnie — is that the one?
[2010/07/27 15:36]  Shorahmin Femto: yup
[2010/07/27 15:36]  Extropia DaSilva: Yes.
[2010/07/27 15:36]  Lem Skall: but people will put controls in every machine just because we all know about the Terminator
[2010/07/27 15:36]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Ah ok
[2010/07/27 15:36]  Shorahmin Femto: Skynet became self aware
[2010/07/27 15:36]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: /me brushes up on her science fiction, from Wells to Bxter 🙂
[2010/07/27 15:36]  Khannea Suntzu: If machines were superhuman smart and wanted to kill humanity, humans would attract fly like symptoms around 10:22 AM and the last one would be dying in a state of total bliss by 14:33 the same day
[2010/07/27 15:36]  Luisa Bourgoin: turing control … all AIs in cyberpunk literature got one
[2010/07/27 15:36]  Zobeid Zuma: /me points Gwyn towards Robotron: 2084! 😀
[2010/07/27 15:36]  Extropia DaSilva: People are referring to Skynet, the automated defense network that learns at a geometric rate, becomes self-aware and kills off humanity.
[2010/07/27 15:37]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: ooh Zo 🙂
[2010/07/27 15:37]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: So what is the topic again? 🙂
[2010/07/27 15:37]  Ziggi Ryba: lol
[2010/07/27 15:37]  Shorahmin Femto: question is… can it happen?
[2010/07/27 15:37]  Extropia DaSilva: So the idea here is, there is no gradual ascendence to AGI..
[2010/07/27 15:37]  Ziggi’s Google Translator: lol
[2010/07/27 15:37]  Lem Skall: develop TWO Skynets and they just kill each other
[2010/07/27 15:37]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Everything we imagine can happen.
[2010/07/27 15:37]  Lem Skall: BTW, what are the odds that there would be only ONE Skynet?
[2010/07/27 15:37]  Khannea Suntzu: Recursive technological self acceleration and displacement scenarios
[2010/07/27 15:38]  Pip Torok: no Lem … in the story they cooperated
[2010/07/27 15:38]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: With the purpose of ending humanity, Khannea?
[2010/07/27 15:38]  Zobeid Zuma: My viewpoint has always been that a “singularity” probably can’t happen, much less happen in a few hours. If it did happen, it would probably be more like 15 years to play out.
[2010/07/27 15:38]  Lem Skall: that’s just a story
[2010/07/27 15:38]  Shorahmin Femto: that’s another movie, an American version and a Russian version. They fall in love and enslave humanity
[2010/07/27 15:38]  Somedirtycat Saule: Extropia, is’t that more of a disaster than anything else?
[2010/07/27 15:38]  Extropia DaSilva: We do not see AI gradually becoming smarter and more capable in ever-more disciplines. Instead it just…appears from nowhere.
[2010/07/27 15:38]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Stroies are fun! They make grat blockbuster movies 🙂
[2010/07/27 15:38]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Aha. Emergent behaviour.
[2010/07/27 15:38]  Extropia DaSilva: I mean AGI.
[2010/07/27 15:38]  Luisa Bourgoin: would awareness and recognition of humanity always, necessarily draw the conclusions of humanity needs to extinct! I mean, human intelligence could even decide different
[2010/07/27 15:38]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: /me has been studying yesterday.
[2010/07/27 15:38]  Extropia DaSilva: We have narrow Ai, obviously.
[2010/07/27 15:39]  Khannea Suntzu: All options are on the table, including ranges of options we can just as well anticipate as can monkeys anticipate being launched into space.
[2010/07/27 15:39]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Luisa, the speculation that any “awakened” intelligence will kill humanity is not so stupid as it sounds.
[2010/07/27 15:39]  Zobeid Zuma: :quotes: “Inspired by his never ending quest for progress, in 2084 man perfects the Robotrons: a robot species so advanced that man is inferior to his own creation. Guided by their infallible logic, the Robotrons conclude: The human race is inefficient, and therefore must be destroyed.”
[2010/07/27 15:39]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: As a matter of fact,
[2010/07/27 15:39]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: how many intelligent species are on the planet right now?
[2010/07/27 15:39]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: One.
[2010/07/27 15:40]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: You know, we used to have four…
[2010/07/27 15:40]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Guess what happened to the other three.
[2010/07/27 15:40]  Khannea Suntzu: Dolphins
[2010/07/27 15:40]  Luisa Bourgoin: depressing point of view … conscious things watching humanity mist *always* delete us …. that seems very biased
[2010/07/27 15:40]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: *Bzzzt* wrong.
[2010/07/27 15:40]  Shorahmin Femto: but we bred with them instead of killing them
[2010/07/27 15:40]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: lol
[2010/07/27 15:40]  Extropia DaSilva: I think, also, the first propper molecular manufacturing system could change the world in a very short time. It may take a long time to design and build number 1, but once we have it we can tell it to build its own copy, and its copy can build copies and in a very short time, the world is changed!
[2010/07/27 15:40]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Shorah, right! So there are two answers to the issue.
[2010/07/27 15:40]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Extermination or crossbreeding.
[2010/07/27 15:40]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Terminator or Borg.
[2010/07/27 15:40]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Pick one.
[2010/07/27 15:41]  Shorahmin Femto: my answer has always been the later
[2010/07/27 15:41]  Lem Skall: Gwyn, you forget cats
[2010/07/27 15:41]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: You will be assimilated!
[2010/07/27 15:41]  Zobeid Zuma: /me thinks neanderthals were one. . . Doesn’t know any others. . .
[2010/07/27 15:41]  Shorahmin Femto: we will eventually merge with the machines to form a new species
[2010/07/27 15:41]  Luisa Bourgoin: those self reproducing machines do exits. forgotten … reprop project or similar. its on google
[2010/07/27 15:41]  Qie Niangao: we’ll get the Borg before AGI. (Facebook already has 500million active users)
[2010/07/27 15:41]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: There were two additional ones, Zo, all living at the same time… only one remains 😉
[2010/07/27 15:42]  Zobeid Zuma: Can you be more specific?
[2010/07/27 15:42]  Extropia DaSilva: You could say humans are merged with technology already, to the extent that humans cannot survive without technology, and technology cannot (yet) exist without humans.
[2010/07/27 15:42]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Of course they exist, Luisa. IBM is expanding their nanotechnology facilities, outside my aunt’s back yard near Zurich.
[2010/07/27 15:42]  Khannea Suntzu: There is no way to make predictions about what may happen. YES a large part of future scenario timelines imvolves radical displacement (swatting mosquito) scenarios, and NO we have as a species no chance at all with superhuman AI. Howeverr – we can make a difference by making sure that potentially take off systems will be strongly compelled to values we’d want aopplied to us. That means – google take off…. maybe… but a pentagon or big oil or Xe take off.. NOOOOO..
[2010/07/27 15:42]  Shorahmin Femto: it is now known that neandertals and cromagnons inter bred
[2010/07/27 15:42]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: yes Shorah!
[2010/07/27 15:42]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: so assimilation IS an answer.
[2010/07/27 15:43]  Shorahmin Femto: yes
[2010/07/27 15:43]  Shorahmin Femto: I prefer merging to assimilation
[2010/07/27 15:43]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: I think that’s a bit too optmistic, Khannea 🙂 I’m really keen on the extermination/assimilation scenario.
[2010/07/27 15:43]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Peaceful co-existence doesn’t make sense in terms of evolution 😉 hehe
[2010/07/27 15:43]  Khannea Suntzu: no. Assimilation is about the same as mice hoping that stuff on the far end of the room is just hamsters AND NOT CATS
[2010/07/27 15:43]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: well
[2010/07/27 15:43]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: it does.
[2010/07/27 15:43]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: For cats, it does 🙂
[2010/07/27 15:44]  Somedirtycat Saule: Ok, any idea what kind of techie stuff realistically can transform our reality in a few days. I lived thrue about 15 years of internet evelopment.
[2010/07/27 15:44]  Lem Skall: are we saying we will procreate with robots?
[2010/07/27 15:44]  Shorahmin Femto: they are still trying to figure out what advantage the neandertal dna gave to the resultant subspecies (us)
[2010/07/27 15:44]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: yes, Lem! Become cyborgs!
[2010/07/27 15:44]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Somedirtycat, nanotechnology would be one.
[2010/07/27 15:44]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: I mean mmmh
[2010/07/27 15:44]  Shorahmin Femto: couldn’t we also say the machines will become human?
[2010/07/27 15:44]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: self-rplicating, home-grown nanotechnology — not the sort IBM is using and developing right now hehe
[2010/07/27 15:44]  Khannea Suntzu: Human. Like pol pot human.
[2010/07/27 15:44]  Luisa Bourgoin: Some, Windows surelz would not be able to archive that
[2010/07/27 15:45]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: right, khannea
[2010/07/27 15:45]  Lem Skall: Cylons
[2010/07/27 15:45]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Borgs!
[2010/07/27 15:45]  Extropia DaSilva: Well, Some, two obvious examples would be an artificial general intelligence, particularly one that can design its own next generation, smarter than the previous version, and which gets out onto the Net.
[2010/07/27 15:45]  Somedirtycat Saule: Gwyneth: how? I heard about it for years now
[2010/07/27 15:45]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: /me pulls the plug on her ‘net connection
[2010/07/27 15:45]  Extropia DaSilva: And nanosystems as dear Gwyn said.
[2010/07/27 15:45]  Luisa Bourgoin: the next generation would be smarter? why always, always did that failed on humans! bummer!
[2010/07/27 15:45]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Don’t ask me, Somedirtycat, I understand next to nothing about nanotechnology 😛
[2010/07/27 15:46]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Right now, it’s way too expensive
[2010/07/27 15:46]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: way too complex to manufacture
[2010/07/27 15:46]  Lem Skall: I think it’s more likely that an AGI will commit suicide as soon as it becomes self-aware
[2010/07/27 15:46]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: at the same scale as rocket science
[2010/07/27 15:46]  Extropia DaSilva: It may take hundreds of years to design the first nanosystem. But, since it can copy itself, we would go from one to billions in a few hours.
[2010/07/27 15:46]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Hundreds?…. Extie, IBm does that every day 😛
[2010/07/27 15:46]  Extropia DaSilva: No they do not.
[2010/07/27 15:46]  Zobeid Zuma: Depends on what you mean by nanotechnology. 😛
[2010/07/27 15:46]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Ah… well
[2010/07/27 15:47]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: I’m stumped on that, Zo 🙂
[2010/07/27 15:47]  Luisa Bourgoin: would be hillarious if first artificila intelligence would develop a nihilistic viewpoint
[2010/07/27 15:47]  Somedirtycat Saule: Gwyneth: The thing is that it will probably like internet develop in many years
[2010/07/27 15:47]  Shorahmin Femto: some techno-belivers say they have the answer to machines becoming Self-aware… Baptize them
[2010/07/27 15:47]  Lem Skall: Luisa, I think it’s very likely
[2010/07/27 15:47]  Zobeid Zuma: Nobody’s built working molecular nanomachines yet that I’m aware of, with the possible exception of that little nano-cart at Rice U.
[2010/07/27 15:47]  Khannea Suntzu: I think hard take off will at best case scenario will mean very traumatizing displacement – I am tinking a few gigadeath “because it stepp on us’ is pretty sure best case scenario. THE ONLY way to avoid this is making use of AIO weaknesses. And we know one big potential weakness – light lag.
[2010/07/27 15:47]  Shorahmin Femto: in other words lead them to an understanding of morality
[2010/07/27 15:47]  Extropia DaSilva: Spelling out IBM with a few Xenon atoms, and building a whole factory at the nanoscale that can make any physical object allowed by the laws of physics are hardly the same thing, Gwyn dear.
[2010/07/27 15:48]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Oh, right, they cheat on the self-replication;
[2010/07/27 15:48]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: they do bionanotechnology 🙂
[2010/07/27 15:48]  Extropia DaSilva: Ahh:)
[2010/07/27 15:48]  Zobeid Zuma: On the other hand, if you can synthesize your own living-and-functioning bacterium (which researchers are getting close to doing), that meets just about every important definition of nanotechnology.
[2010/07/27 15:48]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: That thing of the Xenon atoms was done in 1980, Extie 😛
[2010/07/27 15:48]  Lem Skall: a self-aware AI will search for a purpose, what could that purpose be?
[2010/07/27 15:48]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Believe me, in 30 years, they have improved things a lot…
[2010/07/27 15:48]  Extropia DaSilva: I believe you.
[2010/07/27 15:48]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Zo, yes, that was what I thought.
[2010/07/27 15:49]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Granted,.,, it’s cheating…. 🙂
[2010/07/27 15:49]  Zobeid Zuma: Yeah Gwyn, now they can make a microscoping push-cart — with wheels that turn! 😛
[2010/07/27 15:49]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: but it works
[2010/07/27 15:49]  Luisa Bourgoin: nano technology got pushed bejond any sensible reason. so far, its a money sink
[2010/07/27 15:49]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: exactly, Zo 🙂
[2010/07/27 15:49]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Exactly, Luisa. Just like practical manned space exploration.
[2010/07/27 15:49]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Insanely expensive.
[2010/07/27 15:49]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: A money sink
[2010/07/27 15:49]  Zobeid Zuma: I disagree with both of those assessments. 😛
[2010/07/27 15:49]  Extropia DaSilva: Well, Drexler’s approach begins with bionanotech and gradually builds up top diamondoid manufacturing in a vacuum. So it is not cheating.
[2010/07/27 15:49]  Somedirtycat Saule: And about selfaware computers, how can we tell its selaware?
[2010/07/27 15:50]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: They’ll tell us 🙂
[2010/07/27 15:50]  Somedirtycat Saule: Ok 🙂
[2010/07/27 15:50]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: …. or keep quiet before we destroy them hehe
[2010/07/27 15:50]  Shorahmin Femto: when they start cussing
[2010/07/27 15:50]  Zobeid Zuma: I’m not even sure that “self aware” means anything. It’s a sci-fi term.
[2010/07/27 15:50]  Lem Skall: ok, if we’re talking about nanotechnology, would that also have AI? or will they be just dumb like low level life beings?
[2010/07/27 15:50]  Ragnar Nemeth: nah, Shor – when they start cussing us
[2010/07/27 15:50]  Shorahmin Femto: like all words it means what you put into it
[2010/07/27 15:50]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Right now, they’re dumb 🙂
[2010/07/27 15:50]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: but
[2010/07/27 15:50]  Extropia DaSilva: Rubbish. Every time you use the word ‘I’ you demonstrate you have self awareness:)
[2010/07/27 15:50]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: you could combine both!
[2010/07/27 15:51]  Qie Niangao: well, nanotech is presumably relevant for sensors and effectors… probably a waste of time for computing hardware
[2010/07/27 15:51]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: hehe Extie — right!
[2010/07/27 15:51]  Zobeid Zuma: Nanotech doesn’t have to be intelligent, but it *should* enable much more powerful computers, wich *presumably* would enable AI advances.
[2010/07/27 15:51]  Luisa Bourgoin: horrible! probably we allready disassembpled the very first, self aware – but autistic – thinking machine years ago
[2010/07/27 15:51]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: QIe, IBM thinks otherwise!
[2010/07/27 15:51]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: What Zo said.
[2010/07/27 15:51]  Extropia DaSilva: what do you mean, Luisa?
[2010/07/27 15:51]  Qie Niangao: yeah, but we’ve been waiting for photonic computers for longer than the nanotech flavor-of-the-decade
[2010/07/27 15:51]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: /me is curious too
[2010/07/27 15:51]  Zobeid Zuma: And working AI would make nanomachines a lot more effective. . . They are synergystic technologies.
[2010/07/27 15:52]  Shorahmin Femto: why do we avoid the “soft” sciences when ever we talk about this?
[2010/07/27 15:52]  Zobeid Zuma: Because none of us here ever studied those. We were all nerds with disdain for that stuff. 🙂
[2010/07/27 15:53]  Lem Skall: I guess that rather than self aware it’s a matter of self purpose as opposed of a purpose that we are programming into it
[2010/07/27 15:53]  Somedirtycat Saule: Luisa: Consequences wil…
[2010/07/27 15:53]  Zobeid Zuma: I suspect you’re right, Lem.
[2010/07/27 15:53]  Shorahmin Femto: could it be that psychology might have an insight into what machines will do?
[2010/07/27 15:53]  Ragnar Nemeth: what ‘soft’ science do you see making that kind of chaotic breakthrough, Shor?
[2010/07/27 15:53]  Zobeid Zuma: I’m not sure psychology has much insight into what humans do.
[2010/07/27 15:53]  Luisa Bourgoin: at least, we allready created “smart bombs” … ergs! that suddenly makes me want to destroy human kind
[2010/07/27 15:53]  Extropia DaSilva: If we get used to doing most of our work and play in VR, that might lay down a framework for a hard takeoff. Because ideas and inventions can spread so much quicker online compared to reality. At least while we do not have full blown nano.
[2010/07/27 15:53]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: heeh Zo
[2010/07/27 15:54]  Lem Skall: what about a society like the V-ger one?
[2010/07/27 15:54]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: I like that thought, Extie!
[2010/07/27 15:54]  Zobeid Zuma: Luisa, just look up the “pluto/slam” project sometime. That should do wonders for your faith in mankind!
[2010/07/27 15:54]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Although we need to perfect tools to separate noise from information — all we get now is faster access to data.
[2010/07/27 15:54]  Ragnar Nemeth: completely new purpose, Lem, or tactical developments following a defined strategic direction?
[2010/07/27 15:54]  Shorahmin Femto: that Starwars thing was driven by an assumed psychological even that the Voyager spacecraft underwent
[2010/07/27 15:54]  Luisa Bourgoin: /me @zop: noded down
[2010/07/27 15:55]  Lem Skall: Extie, I see the point of online in that but what are VR doing more than everthing else online?
[2010/07/27 15:55]  Shorahmin Femto: Startrek sorry
[2010/07/27 15:55]  Alexi Flux: Cramp
[2010/07/27 15:55]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: heretic := confusing one with the other!
[2010/07/27 15:55]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: hehe
[2010/07/27 15:55]  Somedirtycat Saule: Will a hard takeoff make us humans obsolete?
[2010/07/27 15:55]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: well, we might still give up a few ergs of energy to power the Matrix…
[2010/07/27 15:55]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: 🙂
[2010/07/27 15:55]  Luisa Bourgoin: not necessarily … the result could adopt us
[2010/07/27 15:56]  Lem Skall: I think human implants are going to evolve much faster than AI
[2010/07/27 15:56]  Shorahmin Femto: the result could be US
[2010/07/27 15:56]  Extropia DaSilva: Our brains ‘notice’ things that get filtered so we are not conciously aware of them. I like to think we exist at the lowest levels of the global brain, so we are aware of all the cultural knowledge and garbage, the latter being filitered out so the Mind is not consciously aware of it, only enlightetend knowledge:)
[2010/07/27 15:56]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Aren’t they already? These days we can get implants on eyes, ears, and major organs, Lem…
[2010/07/27 15:56]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: … oh…. and teeth…. and…. well, you know 🙂
[2010/07/27 15:56]  Lem Skall: Gwyn, I meant brain implants
[2010/07/27 15:56]  Shorahmin Femto: just had lens implants, wonderful
[2010/07/27 15:57]  Lem Skall: breasts? were you going to say breasts?
[2010/07/27 15:57]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Ah! Well, we need to figre out how the brain works first.
[2010/07/27 15:57]  Luisa Bourgoin: or develop a model how future brains should work
[2010/07/27 15:57]  Lem Skall: who needs brain implants when we can have breast implants?
[2010/07/27 15:57]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: lol
[2010/07/27 15:58]  Somedirtycat Saule: <- looking forward to a nice and easy time as a pet
[2010/07/27 15:58]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: meow 🙂
[2010/07/27 15:58]  Shorahmin Femto: the breast implants cause the need for brain implants in men
[2010/07/27 15:58]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: rofl
[2010/07/27 15:58]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: quite right 😉
[2010/07/27 15:58]  Extropia DaSilva: I am not sure the implant method would be fast. People can experiment on ME all they like and no ethics commity will care. But augmenting humans with implants? That would have to pass strict medical guidlines, which takes decades.
[2010/07/27 15:58]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Mmmh. You should suggest that to the industry developing silicone forms, Shorah — they should diversify!
[2010/07/27 15:58]  Qie Niangao: not in North Korea
[2010/07/27 15:59]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: That’s a good point, Exti
[2010/07/27 15:59]  Ataraxia Azemus: Good thing the DPRK doesn’t have much infrastructure for mad science.
[2010/07/27 15:59]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: On the other hand, they might appear on China first…
[2010/07/27 15:59]  Shorahmin Femto: there are many places that don’t have that problem 😄
[2010/07/27 15:59]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: exactly….
[2010/07/27 15:59]  Lem Skall: Extie, and you think that AI will not have regulations as soon as it becomes advanced enough?
[2010/07/27 16:00]  Extropia DaSilva: yes. Hugo De Garis and his brain building project is stationed in China.
[2010/07/27 16:00]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: oh ho
[2010/07/27 16:00]  Zobeid Zuma: The technology could race ahead of the law.
[2010/07/27 16:00]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: I’m not surprised!
[2010/07/27 16:00]  Shorahmin Femto: not everywhere Lem, do you think the Chinese will have qualms?
[2010/07/27 16:00]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: No, they won’t.
[2010/07/27 16:00]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: They will *encourage* it.
[2010/07/27 16:00]  Shorahmin Femto: indeed
[2010/07/27 16:01]  Extropia DaSilva: Does AI research have regulations already? Does anybody know?
[2010/07/27 16:01]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: It’s interesting to see how backwards our Western societies really are … we would still burn Copernicus at the stake if we had a chance 🙂
[2010/07/27 16:01]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Hm. Not in my country, Extie!
[2010/07/27 16:01]  Lem Skall: but China will be firewalled and then Skynet will destroy only China
[2010/07/27 16:01]  Shorahmin Femto: and it is those places having a weak connection to the Soft Sciences like psych, morality, even theology that present the real threat
[2010/07/27 16:01]  Ataraxia Azemus: How so Gwyn?
[2010/07/27 16:01]  Luisa Bourgoin: there are no regulations limiting them. just material available
[2010/07/27 16:02]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Ai research is not restricted at all around here.
[2010/07/27 16:02]  Lem Skall: Gwyn, and how advanced is AI in your country?
[2010/07/27 16:02]  Extropia DaSilva: Do you think that will change, Gwyn?
[2010/07/27 16:02]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: I have no idea, Lem; in the 1990s, it was second only to Japan 🙂
[2010/07/27 16:02]  Zobeid Zuma: We had a big AI project not far from where I live. . . some years back. It didn’t amount to much, but they gave it a nice try.
[2010/07/27 16:02]  Luisa Bourgoin: Lem, there are still european countries that are based upon agricultures
[2010/07/27 16:03]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: These days, with constant underfunding, I hardly believe it’s still the case.
[2010/07/27 16:03]  Extropia DaSilva: ..
[2010/07/27 16:03]  Extropia DaSilva: Yeah I got one too Gwyn, see?
[2010/07/27 16:03]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Nanotechnology is also not restricted here hehe
[2010/07/27 16:03]  Ataraxia Azemus: Still? Everybody needs to eat. :p
[2010/07/27 16:03]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Even for medical use…
[2010/07/27 16:04]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: But that might change though.
[2010/07/27 16:04]  Zobeid Zuma: /me points –> http://www.cyc.com/
[2010/07/27 16:04]  Lem Skall: ok, so it’s not restricted in Somalia either, so what?
[2010/07/27 16:04]  Extropia DaSilva: Oh the endeavour to create an AI with common sense knowledge of the world.
[2010/07/27 16:04]  Shorahmin Femto: try south Korea, that’s really scary
[2010/07/27 16:04]  Luisa Bourgoin: folks stopped watching computers playing chess. it had been … like nano technolgy hype of our days. you know, probably even thinking machines luring arround next weeks corner
[2010/07/27 16:04]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: (oh, Cycorp… they’re fun)
[2010/07/27 16:05]  Extropia DaSilva: I wish people would mention deep fritz.
[2010/07/27 16:05]  Qie Niangao: All the old AI problems have been redefined as “search”… which is basically why the faith that raw compute power will push to the singularity.
[2010/07/27 16:05]  Luisa Bourgoin: could fritz be tomorrow”s skynet, at all?
[2010/07/27 16:06]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: so long as it only plays chess, we’re safe…
[2010/07/27 16:06]  Luisa Bourgoin: try not looking like a pawn
[2010/07/27 16:06]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: lol yes
[2010/07/27 16:07]  Zobeid Zuma: Not looking like a pawn is *always* a good idea.
[2010/07/27 16:07]  Miroirs Hax: brain implants won’t be encouraged till the first brain implant, on it’s way to reach singularity, people will get more and more encouraging and eventually people will jump around and go on talent shows, that’s why energetic or encouraging individuals must be avoided at all cost
[2010/07/27 16:07]  Shorahmin Femto: unless you are actually a rook
[2010/07/27 16:07]  Luisa Bourgoin: every time featuring a believe … 50th: power of the atom. later chess computers … nano technology … what”s coming/failing us next
[2010/07/27 16:07]  Extropia DaSilva: That faith is a straw man. Something critics say, which is not really true. Faith in AI is based on A) the increase in computer power and B) the iincrease in the size and complexity of brain regions we can emulate. So, extrapolate out to 2030 and you have computer hardeware = to human brain + neuroinformatics completely mapping the structure and function of the human brain. Put them together and what have you got?
[2010/07/27 16:07]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Well, the problem with brain implants is the same one mentioned before; as soon as they’re viable, ethic committees will rule them out.
[2010/07/27 16:08]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Extie: a zombie brain! 🙂
[2010/07/27 16:08]  Shorahmin Femto: not in China, South Korea, Russia, Somalia…..
[2010/07/27 16:08]  Qie Niangao: but Extie, the human brain need not be the best model for intelligence. it’s just the handiest one at the moment
[2010/07/27 16:08]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: exactly, Shorah.
[2010/07/27 16:08]  Extropia DaSilva: That is one of those boring philosophical arguments that cannot be disproved.
[2010/07/27 16:08]  Zobeid Zuma: Where can I go to get cloned today?
[2010/07/27 16:09]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Italy, I think… 🙂
[2010/07/27 16:09]  Shorahmin Femto: sorry we’re boring you XD, LOL
[2010/07/27 16:09]  Extropia DaSilva: You are not:)
[2010/07/27 16:09]  Lem Skall: not ruled out, US Army will certainly experiment with it, so will NASA and then it will propagate
[2010/07/27 16:09]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: not that it matters much, Zo — your clone would not be you, just share your DNA 🙂
[2010/07/27 16:09]  Extropia DaSilva: But nobody can prove I am not a zombie.
[2010/07/27 16:09]  Shorahmin Femto: nah Gwyn you get canonized in itally, that’s the opposite
[2010/07/27 16:09]  Extropia DaSilva: Braiiiiiiins…
[2010/07/27 16:09]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: heeh I love the zombie argument
[2010/07/27 16:10]  Extropia DaSilva: It something that worries me.
[2010/07/27 16:10]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: hehe Shorah — I was mentioning this guy who had a lab in Italy performing human cloning (allegedly)
[2010/07/27 16:10]  Luisa Bourgoin: those zombies would at least have our mentoring air
[2010/07/27 16:10]  Shorahmin Femto: but he went out for pasta and nver returned
[2010/07/27 16:11]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: nah, he took his patients money and disappeared, if I remember the news correctly 🙂
[2010/07/27 16:11]  Shorahmin Femto: I’m done bashing italy now
[2010/07/27 16:11]  Luisa Bourgoin: ‘ndrangetha … cosa nostra … mafia … probably didnt paid them
[2010/07/27 16:11]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: and the problem is really that human cloning is very inefficient really
[2010/07/27 16:11]  Lem Skall: meh, cloning does not have much purpose except organ farming
[2010/07/27 16:11]  Extropia DaSilva: If I show a flight denialist a heliocopter, it proves them wrong. They cannot say ‘oh but it is only an IMITATION of flight’. But an AI denialist could say ‘oh it is a zombie and it is not really concious’ and who knows if that is true or false?
[2010/07/27 16:11]  Shorahmin Femto: making armies
[2010/07/27 16:11]  Miroirs Hax: by the time greater-than-human-intelligence capability reaches Italy the ancestor simulation will be resetted and you´ll all die.
[2010/07/27 16:11]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: I agree, Lem — and even so…. we have better medical procedures for developing organs from staminal cells.
[2010/07/27 16:12]  Shorahmin Femto: that’s for fixing armies
[2010/07/27 16:12]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Yes, Extie, that’s a question that we cannot answer.
[2010/07/27 16:12]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: It’s still fun to ask though 🙂
[2010/07/27 16:12]  Lem Skall: Shor, not efficient to create armies, even with clones it takes a lifetime to grow and train
[2010/07/27 16:12]  Extropia DaSilva: If we had greater-than-human intelligence, the death of the human race would not matter. Its purpose would be fulfilled.
[2010/07/27 16:12]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: and clones will not be identical in their personalities anyway
[2010/07/27 16:12]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: so, worthless for armies — better use robots with AIs 🙂
[2010/07/27 16:13]  Extropia DaSilva: Clones do not even look alike.
[2010/07/27 16:13]  Shorahmin Femto: today Lem, but not forever
[2010/07/27 16:13]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Right!
[2010/07/27 16:13]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Oh, that’s almost a religious thought, Extie (I just scrolled back!)
[2010/07/27 16:13]  Extropia DaSilva: I know:)
[2010/07/27 16:13]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Very nice 🙂 I hope you can put it into the poem 🙂
[2010/07/27 16:13]  Extropia DaSilva: I am the high priestess of the Technocalypse.
[2010/07/27 16:13]  Ataraxia Azemus: Will an army of clones be cheaper than an army of robots? There’s the deciding factor.
[2010/07/27 16:13]  Lem Skall: Shor, if we can grow clones faster and educate them faster then we will be able to do the same with normally born people
[2010/07/27 16:13]  Shorahmin Femto: the human race asdefined by this moment in time will die
[2010/07/27 16:14]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: ohhhhh lol
[2010/07/27 16:14]  Shorahmin Femto: it will be replaced by something else
[2010/07/27 16:14]  Extropia DaSilva: Oh I like that, Shor.
[2010/07/27 16:14]  Zobeid Zuma: Well, with clones at least we wouldn’t need men anymore. . .
[2010/07/27 16:14]  Ataraxia Azemus: Ha!
[2010/07/27 16:14]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: hooray 🙂
[2010/07/27 16:14]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: oops
[2010/07/27 16:14]  Jayda Ferrentino: lolllll
[2010/07/27 16:14]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: /me *covers her mouth*
[2010/07/27 16:14]  Lem Skall: we won’t need women either
[2010/07/27 16:14]  Extropia DaSilva: With gynoids men would not need women.
[2010/07/27 16:14]  Jayda Ferrentino: aw but you need something pretty to look at
[2010/07/27 16:14]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: we have SL avatars for that, Jayda 😀
[2010/07/27 16:14]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: hehe
[2010/07/27 16:14]  Jayda Ferrentino: hahaha
[2010/07/27 16:15]  Shorahmin Femto: you ladies under value what you bring tto male motivation
[2010/07/27 16:15]  Lem Skall: what’s the point of an overy when you have clones? what’s the point of breasts if there are no men?
[2010/07/27 16:15]  Lem Skall: ovary*
[2010/07/27 16:15]  Jayda Ferrentino: i like my breasts though
[2010/07/27 16:15]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: so, in the future, we’ll all be playing SL, while iRL, clones and nanotech robots will be procreating and sapping our energy to run SL for free….
[2010/07/27 16:15]  Lem Skall: Jayda, do you play with them?
[2010/07/27 16:15]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: gosh!
[2010/07/27 16:15]  Jayda Ferrentino: others do lemmy
[2010/07/27 16:15]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: we ARE digressing!
[2010/07/27 16:15]  Lem Skall: rofl
[2010/07/27 16:15]  Miroirs Hax: we have a hard enough time specifying life, let alone consciousness, besides metaphysical implications of an observer a complex flexible self-aware learning AI must be called conscious by all accounts
[2010/07/27 16:15]  Jayda Ferrentino: either way, they;re appreciated
[2010/07/27 16:16]  Qie Niangao: oh noes! NPIOF nanotech
[2010/07/27 16:16]  Zobeid Zuma: I think it’s more fun when we digress!
[2010/07/27 16:16]  Extropia DaSilva: yes we should keep abreast of the actual topic…um…
[2010/07/27 16:16]  Jayda Ferrentino: lollll
[2010/07/27 16:16]  Shorahmin Femto: groan
[2010/07/27 16:16]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: lol @ Extie’s pun!
[2010/07/27 16:17]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Well, I think we’ll never know for sure if an AI is self-aware or not.
[2010/07/27 16:17]  Lem Skall: I predict the poem will mention breasts
[2010/07/27 16:17]  Luisa Bourgoin: Aliza cheated for sure
[2010/07/27 16:17]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: It’s almost a solipcism — how do we know that a mind is self-conscious? We can only apply a test to it,
[2010/07/27 16:17]  Shorahmin Femto: seriously, the two sexes have contributed greatly to our species urge to go forward, to succeed, to accomplish. It works both ways
[2010/07/27 16:17]  Zobeid Zuma: We’ll never know what “self-aware” means. Because it’s something out of Star Trek technobabble.
[2010/07/27 16:17]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: one that we hope that works with humans and self-aware AIs
[2010/07/27 16:17]  Qie Niangao: “consciousness” is an epiphenomenon anyway. No reason to think it improves intelligence or effectiveness at anything important to AI.
[2010/07/27 16:17]  Lem Skall: Shor, men have contributed more ;P
[2010/07/27 16:18]  Jayda Ferrentino: ha
[2010/07/27 16:18]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Well, Qie, yes, if you’re an epiphenomenalist.
[2010/07/27 16:18]  Extropia DaSilva: Of course, a SeeD AI need not ever pass a Turing test, because what its purpose is, is optimizing its own source code, not imitating human language and behaviour.
[2010/07/27 16:18]  Shorahmin Femto: check under your hood before you drive home Lem
[2010/07/27 16:18]  Lem Skall: hehe
[2010/07/27 16:18]  Qie Niangao: actually, doesn’t matter if *we’re* epiphenomenalists, if it works for the AI
[2010/07/27 16:18]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: That’s true, Qie!
[2010/07/27 16:18]  Zobeid Zuma: Somebody remind me, what does the “I” stand for in AI?
[2010/07/27 16:18]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Ignorance.
[2010/07/27 16:18]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: lol
[2010/07/27 16:18]  Jayda Ferrentino: lolll
[2010/07/27 16:19]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: AI = Advanced Ignorance.
[2010/07/27 16:19]  Luisa Bourgoin: we can allready manufacture that!
[2010/07/27 16:19]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Which comes free with eevry human kit.
[2010/07/27 16:19]  Ataraxia Azemus: We’re pretty good at AI then!
[2010/07/27 16:19]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Aye, Luisa!
[2010/07/27 16:19]  Extropia DaSilva: Lem is right. I bet most people could rattle of 100 male inventors, explorers, artists etc for every one female scienist etc anyone can name.
[2010/07/27 16:19]  Zobeid Zuma: I know when playing Civ3, I’ve been surprised many times by its Artificial Stupidity routines.
[2010/07/27 16:19]  Jayda Ferrentino: well seeing as women didn’t recieve formal education
[2010/07/27 16:19]  Luisa Bourgoin: I’m troubled with epiphenomenalists. what does that mean
[2010/07/27 16:19]  Jayda Ferrentino: until much later and were denied their rights
[2010/07/27 16:19]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Humans have natural Stupidity.
[2010/07/27 16:19]  Jayda Ferrentino: :B
[2010/07/27 16:19]  Shorahmin Femto: damn, there we go only counting the Hard sciences again
[2010/07/27 16:20]  Ataraxia Azemus: To be fair, men have hogged the historical spotlight for umpteen million years.
[2010/07/27 16:20]  Shorahmin Femto: how about female authors
[2010/07/27 16:20]  Lem Skall: Extie, but those men have mothers too 🙂
[2010/07/27 16:20]  Jayda Ferrentino: marie curie wasn’t a dick
[2010/07/27 16:20]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Luisa, it means that certain properties that we create as concepts in our mind arise spontaneously from sufficiently complex systems with the right conditions.
[2010/07/27 16:20]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: e.g. “mind”, “climate”
[2010/07/27 16:20]  Extropia DaSilva: That is not sufficient to explain the huge gap. Men are better scientists, and inventors.
[2010/07/27 16:20]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: From breasts to sexist arguments? Mmmh.
[2010/07/27 16:20]  Jayda Ferrentino: there are more men
[2010/07/27 16:20]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: This is a strange Thinkers’ meeting!
[2010/07/27 16:21]  Shorahmin Femto: Why would a male work at his hunter-gather skills? To get laid when he got bak, by the best looking women at the camp
[2010/07/27 16:21]  Luisa Bourgoin: chalk that onto Lem & Sho’s list!
[2010/07/27 16:21]  Extropia DaSilva: It is not sexist, any more than it is racist to notice that all the best atheletes are black.
[2010/07/27 16:21]  Jayda Ferrentino: dominating those fields but women are catching up
[2010/07/27 16:21]  Lem Skall: ooh, not ALL the best athletes
[2010/07/27 16:21]  Zobeid Zuma: Eh? Are they?
[2010/07/27 16:21]  Jayda Ferrentino: academically
[2010/07/27 16:21]  Extropia DaSilva: Welll..in running.
[2010/07/27 16:21]  Extropia DaSilva: Maybe not in other field events.
[2010/07/27 16:22]  Miroirs Hax: there being more men, men die faster, by the time humans reach 20 or so women have catched up and by the time humans are 70 it´s all women with a few lucky but squeeky men
[2010/07/27 16:22]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Ok, uh…. have we abandoned AI? lol
[2010/07/27 16:22]  Jayda Ferrentino: first to arrive and first to leave
[2010/07/27 16:22]  Shorahmin Femto: squeeeeeek
[2010/07/27 16:23]  Extropia DaSilva: Well, unless somebody has something else they wish to add, on the topic of Ai, the Singularity?
[2010/07/27 16:23]  Ataraxia Azemus: In the US at least, a lot of athletes are black because sports were the one arena where a person could prove their worth and climb the ranks through hard work and merit alone.
[2010/07/27 16:23]  Shorahmin Femto: that’s why they were Irish 100 years ago
[2010/07/27 16:23]  Shorahmin Femto: and then Italian
[2010/07/27 16:23]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: I think that the hardest thing about the singularity is to *recognise* when the super-AI becomes self-aware 🙂
[2010/07/27 16:23]  Miroirs Hax: what are the latest prospects on the singularity, the concept has been around for a while and i´m wondering if there have been new insights
[2010/07/27 16:23]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: …. before it’s too late hehe
[2010/07/27 16:23]  Extropia DaSilva: ..It is a Forbidden question. Science is not allowed to ask if the success black people have in athletics is down to genetics.
[2010/07/27 16:24]  Shorahmin Femto: remember Jimmy The Greek?
[2010/07/27 16:24]  Extropia DaSilva: Is self awareness a pre requisite of a singularity, then?
[2010/07/27 16:24]  Lem Skall: the restaurants?
[2010/07/27 16:24]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Miroirs, Moore’s law still applies to computer power — it still grows exponentially
[2010/07/27 16:25]  Lem Skall: Gwyn, I don’t think that’s true already
[2010/07/27 16:25]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: well, now they cheat
[2010/07/27 16:25]  Lem Skall: exactly
[2010/07/27 16:25]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: instead of faster CPUs, they use multicore CPUs 🙂
[2010/07/27 16:25]  Shorahmin Femto: no he was fired for refering to a genetics reason for sports succeess
[2010/07/27 16:25]  Luisa Bourgoin: Moor … actually we know it cannot persist indefinitely, since atomic structure sizes will act limiting
[2010/07/27 16:25]  Jayda Ferrentino: lolll
[2010/07/27 16:25]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Well yes, Luisa, but you can still cheat.
[2010/07/27 16:26]  Extropia DaSilva: It is the exponential growth that makes it counter intuitive, because the biggest changes ocurr in the last few doublings. Look at the genome project, which took 5 years to sequence 1 percent, and the other 99 percent was done in the next 5 years.
[2010/07/27 16:26]  Ataraxia Azemus: To a point. Nothing lasts forever.
[2010/07/27 16:26]  Shorahmin Femto: we need to do this again with some Liberal Arts Majors present
[2010/07/27 16:26]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: /me *nods* @ Extie
[2010/07/27 16:26]  Luisa Bourgoin: exponential grow ALWAYS merely works when cheating! …look at economy
[2010/07/27 16:26]  Ataraxia Azemus: The more of a puzzle you have put together, the easier it gets to spot the patterns.
[2010/07/27 16:26]  Lem Skall: Extie is a Liberal Arts Major?
[2010/07/27 16:26]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: good point, Luisa 🙂 hehe
[2010/07/27 16:26]  Extropia DaSilva: Yes but the theoertical limit for information processing is 10 to the power of 122 bits, and we are some way away from that:)
[2010/07/27 16:27]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: lol
[2010/07/27 16:27]  Miroirs Hax: actually science has been trying to link intelligence and other behaviour to (racial) genetics for a really long time, always unsuccesful or so insignificant it is overshadowed by cultural influences by magnitudes. (also fe. linking intelligence to brainsize, or women..too bad Einstein had relatively small brains)
[2010/07/27 16:27]  Miroirs Hax: small brain(
[2010/07/27 16:27]  Luisa Bourgoin: Extie, that gnome success has indeed marked a breakthru
[2010/07/27 16:27]  Extropia DaSilva: what gnome?
[2010/07/27 16:27]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: With that argument, Miroirs, one might even point out that the brain is not a fundamental part of what we call intelligence… 😉
[2010/07/27 16:27]  Shorahmin Femto: I think he meant Einstein
[2010/07/27 16:28]  Ataraxia Azemus: Genetics is only one factor, anyway, not the be all, end all of human potential.
[2010/07/27 16:28]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: True.
[2010/07/27 16:28]  Ataraxia Azemus: We’re pretty flexible. It’s how we survived so long!
[2010/07/27 16:28]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Intelligence is overrated 🙂 or we’d had out-evolved stupidity hehe
[2010/07/27 16:28]  Luisa Bourgoin: brain sizes does not equal brain activity. there are really big dull examples available
[2010/07/27 16:29]  Miroirs Hax: that´s a stretch, how so, it might be small or large or even female god forbid, intelligence does seem to be happening there
[2010/07/27 16:29]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: I know it’s a stretch 🙂
[2010/07/27 16:29]  Extropia DaSilva: The human genome project was like noting down every egyptian heiroglyphic. All well and good, but the real challenge is learning how to read and understand it.
[2010/07/27 16:29]  Luisa Bourgoin: where else does intelligence take place?
[2010/07/27 16:29]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: It’s just one discussion I had once on post-Thinkers…. claiming that human beings 6,000 years ago were ot “More intelligent” than we are today.
[2010/07/27 16:29]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: *not
[2010/07/27 16:30]  Shorahmin Femto: Time for me to go, good fun, glad I had the time, bye all
[2010/07/27 16:30]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: They just had less knowledge — but the same intelligence
[2010/07/27 16:30]  Qie Niangao: or maybe the singularity happened long ago, and we, with our neuronal nanotech, are it.
[2010/07/27 16:30]  Ataraxia Azemus: Bye Shorahmin
[2010/07/27 16:30]  Extropia DaSilva: They were not, to the extent that a 6000 year old baby could be raised like any baby of today.
[2010/07/27 16:30]  Miroirs Hax: i agree on that Gwyneth, evolution has not been doing us much favours since
[2010/07/27 16:30]  Luisa Bourgoin: because of beeing slow!
[2010/07/27 16:30]  Lem Skall: Gwyn, maybe the spectrum was just as wide but the distribution was different, more smart people today than before
[2010/07/27 16:30]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: It shouldn’t, if the theory is valid — all species evolve to become the best possible for their niche.
[2010/07/27 16:31]  Extropia DaSilva: However, clearly the knowledge we have accumulated, and the technologies we have developed, are obviously far advanced compared to anything 6000 years ago:)
[2010/07/27 16:31]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: I’m not so sure, Lem. More people, yes, because we’ve grown in absolite numbers.
[2010/07/27 16:31]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: Extie — that goes without questioning 🙂
[2010/07/27 16:31]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: That’s extelligence!
[2010/07/27 16:31]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: (really)
[2010/07/27 16:32]  Ataraxia Azemus: I don’t think there are any “smart people” when we talk about base intelligence.
[2010/07/27 16:32]  Zobeid Zuma: We also function differently from ancient times now due to the type and quantities of food we have available. Plus caffeine. 🙂
[2010/07/27 16:32]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: So our intelligence (my claim) remains the same, but our extelligence is growing exponentially.
[2010/07/27 16:32]  Ataraxia Azemus: We all have the capacity for the same level of intelligence. Random factors influence what we can do with that.
[2010/07/27 16:32]  Extropia DaSilva: Natural selection found a way to make us twice as intelligent without increasing our brain capacity. It invented language, so one person could communicate ideas to her friend and she could contribute ideas of her own. Two brains, or two million brains, are better than one.
[2010/07/27 16:32]  Extropia DaSilva: MY time is up!
[2010/07/27 16:32]  Luisa Bourgoin: fearing technology will slip out hands one day … there will nobody arround knowing all details about one’s car, for example
[2010/07/27 16:33]  Gwyneth Llewelyn: This argument can actually be used to try to identify where self-aware AIs will come from. They don’t need to be very smart. They just need to be interconnected and have next-to-unlimited access to data.
[2010/07/27 16:33]  Lem Skall: Just the way people get stupider with age if they don’t exercise their minds, the same way people get smarter if they do, And with the evolution to an industrial society from an agrarian one, more people get to think and use their minds
[2010/07/27 16:33]  Extropia DaSilva: NEXT WEEK: COMETH THE MAN.
[2010/07/27 16:33]  Ataraxia Azemus: Caffeeeeeine!
[2010/07/27 16:33]  Extropia DaSilva: recent poll showed residents’ faith in the future of SL significantly improving after it was announced Rosedale would return as CEO. But, in a world that depends so much on collaborative creation of content by the many, how much difference can any one person really make?
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One Response to THINKERS 27th JULY 2010: HARD TAKEOFF.

  1. Serendipity Seraph says:

    Ooohhhh. What a one to miss!

    I don’t believe that we can in any way compel the moral/ethical conclusions of a vastly superior intelligence that can self-examine, question and rebuild every part of itself. Certainly it would know of any such limits we at attempted to install and understand why. I think it very unlikely that it would simply acquiesce to our decision without deeply questioning it. I doubt very much it would be agreeable to its thinking being limited in some areas that make us nervous.

    Peaceful coexistence makes plenty of sense in terms of evolution if the two “species” are not competitors in the same niche[s] mostly.

    I don’t think that even self improving AGI advent will result in a “few days takeoff”. But perhaps post-molecular nanotechnology (likely perfected by AGI) it could. It would take that sort of massive parallel physical system building/destruction/transformation to do it. Before that the self improving systems would proceed at human pace as far as actual hardware implementation goes at least.

    Even with that caveat, the advent of greater than human artificial AI will profoundly transform all aspects of culture and the world of work and reach very deeply into the human world view very quickly. The AGI doesn’t have to do all the work of massive change by itself but it will not all happen in a few days.

    Actually if you put together good enough models of how the human brain thinks and sufficient computing power you get computer systems that think pretty much like a human being, except hopefully without as many of the distractions (running a bio body and dealing with its failings, needs and urges). That is a rather inevitable conclusion given the to IFs.

    You are the high priestess of the Technocalypse, darling? Wow. How come that really turns me on? 🙂

    I think self awareness comes out of some combination of three things. I am not sure that all are needed but the first two definitely are:

    ▪ sufficient intelligence to model self as agent in relation to world/environment;
    ▪ ability to act and goals / desires requiring action to fulfill;
    ▪ modeling other agents in the environment;
    ▪ modeling other agents modeling of self;

    I think the last is the critical final step but the first two may be sufficient. As I cannot picture a viable AGI without the first two aptitudes and in much greater quantity and quality than is true of humans, I think it is likely that any true AGI will be self-aware. However, I don’t think that self-awareness per se is necessary to Singularity. If I am right then AGI self-awareness is just a consequence of AGI existence.

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